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September 29, 2011 - Updated: September 29, 2011
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Canadian home sales hold steady in August

OTTAWA – According to statistics1 released on September 15, 2011 by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national resale housing activity in August 2011 remained stable for the second consecutive month.

Highlights:

Sales activity was stable from July to August, but posted another big year-over-year gain reflecting weakened demand last summer.
Year-to-date sales pulled ahead of 2010 levels for the first time this year, and remain in line with the ten-year average.
The number of newly listed homes was also little changed from July to August.
The national housing market stayed firmly entrenched in balanced territory.
There were more balanced local markets in August than at any other time on record.
The national average price posted another year-over-year gain in August, but has moderated from elevated levels earlier this year.
Upward skewing of the national average price is diminishing due to fewer expensive sales and a declining share of national activity in Vancouver and Toronto.

For a second consecutive month, national home sales activity held steady in August 2011 when compared to the previous month.

Among major urban centres, Toronto and Ottawa posted a monthly increase in activity while Calgary, Montreal and Vancouver saw activity decline slightly.

“The housing market in Canada remained on a firm footing in August when compared to volatile financial markets,” said Gary Morse, CREA President. “Through their actions, homebuyers are showing that they remain confident about the stability of the Canadian housing market, and recognize that the continuation of low interest rates represents an excellent opportunity to buy their first home or trade up.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity came in 15.8 per cent above national levels reported one year earlier. This was the largest year-over-year increase since last April, but largely reflects weakened activity one year ago.

A total of 324,030 homes have traded hands via Canadian MLS® Systems so far this year. While this stands only marginally above levels in the first eight months of last year, it nevertheless marks the first time this year that year-to-date activity has pulled ahead of 2010 levels.

As has been the case for much of this year, the year-to-date sales figure continues to run in line with the ten-year average.

The number of newly listed homes nationally was also little changed from July to August. This kept the national housing market firmly planted in balanced territory. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 51.6 per cent in August, unchanged compared to July.

Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40 to 60 per cent, 70 per cent of all local markets in Canada were in balanced market territory in August – a greater percentage than at any other time on record. There were just 12 buyers’ markets in August, which was the lowest figure so far this year.

The number of months of inventory stood at 6.2 months at the end of August on a national basis, which is little changed from the end of July (6.1 months). The national months of inventory figure has been stable at about six months since April. The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is another measure of the balance between housing supply and demand.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in August 2011 stood at $349,916. This is 7.7 per cent above its year-ago level, which marked the low point for 2010.

The national average price has moderated compared to earlier this year, with sales activity in Vancouver, and more recently in Toronto, exerting less of an effect on the national average. Their share of provincial and national sales activity reached unusually elevated levels earlier this year, but has since receded in line with normal seasonal variations.

“Once again, economic and financial market headwinds outside Canada are keeping interest rates lower for longer,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Those headwinds will likely persist until, and indeed after, fiscal quagmires in the U.S. and Europe are resolved. In the meantime, the Bank of Canada will have ample reason to delay raising interest rates further, which is supportive for the Canadian housing market.”

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas.

Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 100,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/media.htm.

1 All figures in this release, unless otherwise noted, are seasonally adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation. Removing regular seasonal variations enables analysis of monthly changes and fundamental trends in the data.

Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent

Ottawa, Ontario - The Bank of Canada announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.

The global economic outlook has deteriorated in recent weeks as several downside risks to the projection in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) have been realized. The European sovereign debt crisis has intensified, a broad range of data has signalled slower global growth, and financial market volatility has increased sharply. Recent benchmark revisions show that the U.S. recession was deeper and its recovery has been shallower than previously reported. In combination with recent economic data, this implies that U.S. growth will be weaker than previously anticipated. The Bank expects that American household spending will be even more subdued in the face of high personal debt burdens, large declines in wealth and tough labour market conditions. Fiscal stimulus in the United States will also soon turn into material fiscal drag. Acute fiscal and financial strains in Europe have triggered a generalized retrenchment from risk-taking and could prompt more severe dislocations in global financial markets. Resolution of these strains will require additional significant initiatives by European authorities. Growth in emerging-market economies has been robust, although its rate and composition will be affected by weakness in major advanced economies. While commodity prices have declined owing to diminished global growth prospects, they remain relatively high.

Largely due to temporary factors, Canadian economic growth stalled in the second quarter. The Bank continues to expect that growth will resume in the second half of this year, led by business investment and household expenditures, although lower wealth and incomes will likely moderate the pace of investment and consumption growth. The supply and price of credit to businesses and households remain very stimulative. However, financial conditions in Canada have tightened somewhat and could tighten further in the event that global financial conditions continue to deteriorate. Net exports are now expected to remain a major source of weakness, reflecting more modest global demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, in particular the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.

Slower global economic momentum will dampen domestic resource utilization and inflationary pressures. The Bank expects total CPI inflation to continue to moderate as temporary factors, such as significantly higher food and energy prices, unwind. Core inflation is expected to remain well-contained as labour compensation growth stays modest, productivity recovers, and inflation expectations remain well-anchored.

Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. In light of slowing global economic momentum and heightened financial uncertainty, the need to withdraw monetary policy stimulus has diminished. The Bank will continue to monitor carefully economic and financial developments in the Canadian and global economies, together with the evolution of risks, and set monetary policy consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.

Inflation rate rises to 3.1% in August

Canada's annual inflation rate was stronger than expected in August, checking in at 3.1 per cent as consumers paid more for gasoline and groceries.

The August rise followed increases of 2.7 per cent in July and 3.1 per cent in June, Statistics Canada said Wednesday.

Economists had been forecasting a 2.9 per cent year-over-year rate of inflation for August, according to a Reuters survey of 24 forecasts.

The Bank of Canada's closely watched core inflation index rose 1.9 per cent in the 12 months to August, following a 1.6 per cent gain in July. The higher increase in August was mainly due to a rise in prices for passenger vehicle insurance premiums, food purchased from restaurants as well as bakery and cereal products.

The ups and downs of what you spend money onThe central bank aims to keep overall inflation at the two per cent target, the midpoint of its one to three per cent inflation-control target range. The central bank's governor, Mark Carney, said Tuesday that he was not worried about inflation and that he would not raise interest rates.

"Despite the upside surprise to core inflation, the Bank of Canada appears in no rush to tighten given the economic and financial market headwinds that are currently blowing," BMO Financial Group chief economist Sherry Cooper said in commentary. "But the appetite to ease now looks smaller."

Derek Burleton, deputy chief economist at TD Economics, thinks the August inflation rise will be temporary.

"Since August, near-term economic growth prospects globally and in Canada have soured, and world commodity prices have pulled back," Burleton said. "These developments should begin to show up in the September inflation numbers."

Higher gas, food prices

Statistics Canada said gasoline prices went up 22.8 per cent between August 2010 and August 2011, compared with the 23.5 per cent 12-month increase in July. Prices for fuel oil and electricity also rose, while natural gas prices fell.

Food prices went up 4.4 per cent in the 12 months to August, following a 4.3 per cent annual increase in July. Consumers paid 5.0 per cent more for food purchased from stores and 2.7 per cent for restaurant meals.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.3 per cent from July to August. Economists had expected a rise of 0.1 per cent.

Poll finds most Canadians content with their debt situation

TORONTO – More than half of Canadians feel they are satisfied with their current debt situation, according to a new poll by Royal Bank of Canada.

The RBC Debt Poll finds a majority of Canadians, 67 per cent, are comfortable with their current state of debt, or they have no personal debt at all.

Three-quarters of Canadians surveyed feel they are in better shape with their non-mortgage debt than their friends and neighbours.

The poll reveals demographic information like age and family size is closely linked to debt anxiety. Thirty-nine per cent of 18-to 34-year-olds say they feel anxiety related to their debt, compared to 21 per cent of Canadians 55 and older.

The poll reveals the priorities of most Canadians lie closer to financial security rather than lavish living.

Ninety-three per cent believe paying down debt is more important than, or just as important as, saving for the future. Four in ten Canadians remain cautious about their financial situation, opting to forgo or delay plans to avoid adding to their debt loads.

Nearly a quarter of those polled say they have postponed a vacation or held off on a big-ticket purchase to avoid falling deeper into debt.

The results indicate Canadians with children are most likely to axe their travel plans, curb their consumption or delay the purchase of a home. Forty eight per cent of parents are far more likely to switch their spending intentions due to debt, compared to the 37 per cent national average.

Cross-Canada highlights

British Columbia: 50 per cent of B.C. residents say saving and investing for the future is as important as paying down debt, the highest rate in the country.

Alberta: Albertans are the most anxious about debt compared to other provinces. They’re also the most likely to revise their long-term plans due to debt concerns.

Prairies: Residents in Saskatchewan and Manitoba lead the country on not changing their plans due to debt concerns. They’re also the most comfortable and happy with their personal debt situation compared to other provinces.

Ontario: 24 per cent of Ontarians said they have no personal debt, above the national average of 22 per cent.

Quebec: 27 per cent of Quebecers say they are in worse shape than their friends and neighbours for non-mortgage debt, tying Alberta for the highest rate in the country.

Atlantic Canada: East coast Canadians are the most optimistic about their debt situation compared to their friends, neighbours and other provincial averages.

Autumn Maintenance For Your Home

As the leaves change and the days get shorter, take the time this autumn to prepare for the oncoming cold weather. Ready the furnace for the months of work it will have ahead, and clean out the fireplace. Test them both to ensure they’ll be working when you need the heat. Don’t wait until it’s snowing to clear out your gutters. With upkeep in the fall, you’ll have peace of mind in the winter and more time to hibernate.

Inside The House

Heating System Checkup
Be sure to change the air filter in your furnace and check its efficiency before the cold weather begins. Call in an HVAC contractor to test the heating output and give the system a tune-up. This technician can also check for and correct possibly hazardous carbon monoxide levels generated by your heating system. Stock up on several air filters for the winter, and change them every month. If you don’t have a programmable thermostat, purchase one for the system to help lower your energy costs.

After your furnace has been tuned up to its maximum efficiency, take a moment to inspect your heating ducts and vents. Dust them off and clear away anything that may have gotten into them over the summer. Then check your windows for any leaks that may compromise your heating efficiency. If you feel cold air coming in, purchase a plastic sealing kit from the hardware store and place the plastic around the window to keep the heat from escaping. Be sure to check your doors as well, and fix their weather-stripping if needed.

Check The Fireplace And Chimney
Most chimney sweeps recommend an annual sweeping, but depending on how often you use the fireplace, you might be able to wait on a full sweep. But if you will be using the fireplace often, call a chimney sweep for an inspection. For further information, read the Chimney and Woodburning Fireplace Safety guide.

Hopefully you will have your older, seasoned firewood now ready for use after sitting for the spring and summer. It’s recommended to keep the firewood at least 30 feet from the house and covered. Seasoned wood is best for fires, as it burns cleaner and longer.

Review Home Fire Safety
The introduction of the heating season brings new potential for fire hazards, so take a moment to review fire safety in your home. Check and replace fire extinguishers if necessary, and change the batteries in your smoke detectors. Also go over the home fire evacuation plan with your family.

Outside The House

The Gutters
It’s best to inspect and clean the gutters a few times during the fall, especially if there are many leafy trees around your house. If gutters remain clogged, water will spill over them and onto the ground next to the foundation, which may cause damage to the foundation. Gutters and downspouts should be kept clean and should direct water away from the foundation, as well as from walkways and driveways, so that they do not become slippery or icy.

Yard Maintenance
The orange, yellow, and brown colors of the autumn leaves don’t look as nice on the ground as they do on the trees. Rake the leaves into piles and scoop them into yard waste bags. Most areas have ordinances about burning leaves, so check with your local area government first. When sweeping the leaves off your patio, don’t forget to clean, pack up, and store any patio furniture for the winter. Disconnect garden hoses and, if practical, use an indoor valve to shut off and drain water from pipes leading to outside faucets. This reduces the chance of freezing in the section of pipe just inside the house.

In The Garage
It is recommended that you empty out unused fuel from any gas-powered equipment stored in the garage, such as a lawnmower, because sediment can build up and clog the fuel lines. Store gasoline in tanks out of children’s reach and have it ready for use in your snowblower or emergency generator, if need be.

Test Your Emergency Generator
It’s a good idea to have an emergency generator if you live in an area that sees a lot of ice storms, as these are a major cause of blackouts during the winter. So if you have one, haul it out and give it a test run to see if it is in good working order. Make sure you never run the generator in any enclosed space – like your garage – as it will present a carbon monoxide hazard

 


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